The following information is summarized from the Japanese language Wing Daily (April 20 edition) and the Wing Newsletter (April 26 edition) where a summary of a Japan Aircraft Development Corporation (JADC) reported on the worldwide market forecast for commercial air transport 2010-2029.
Much of the information discussed in the report is similar to that of other reports available in the market, but it is interesting to see the prospective compiled by a research institution in Japan. In preparing this report, JADC dispatched 3 missions to Europe, North America and within the Asia/Pacific.
Selected notes:
– JADC forecast that new aircraft demand for the next 20 years from 2010 to 2029 may reach 29,083 worldwide.
– The forecast noted that “operated aircraft in the world” may increase by about 2.1 times to 35,678 from 17,201 as of the end of 2009.
– JADC forecast that revenue passenger-kilometres (RPK) will grow by around 5% every year globally, saying that the world will see ever-increasing aircraft demand as the world economy recovers from the recession: 5% expected growth rate a year is higher than the annual 4.8% JADC reported last year.
- The largest growth will be found in the Asia Pacific region with 6.1% a year, higher than the world average.
- The region’s share is also expected to rise from 26% as of the end of 2009 to 32% in 2029,
- The North American region is forecasted to reduce from 30% as of 2009 to 25% in 2029.
- The European share will also reduce from 28% to 24%.
– As for jet aircraft demand by size, JADC forecasts that the largest market will continue to be the 120 to 169 seat segment with new demand of 10,406 for the next 20 years.
- Bombardier is developing CSeries in this segment.
- Also of note is possible development of re-engine program and/or replacement program (FMP) for the A320 and B737.
– JADC’s forecast projects that long-range international flights will grow further in the globalized world,
- JADC forecasts that new demand in the 230 to 309 seats segment may reach 4,320. Including 487 current aircraft, a total of 4,807 will probably be operated as of 2029.
– In the 60 to 99 seats segment, in which MRJ is included, the new demand may reach 3,823.
- Including 805 remaining aircraft, a total of 4,628 aircraft will probably be operated as of 2029.
JADC expects that there will be large demand to upsize less than 50 seat aircraft or downsize more than 100 seat aircraft mainly in the North America market.
– The following are detailed forecasts by aircraft size:
- 20 to 59 seats: from 1,828 to 2,068 in 2029, including 1,353 new aircraft
- 60 to 99 seats: from 1,671 to 4,628 in 2029, including 3,823 new aircraft
- 100 to 119 seats: from 1,005 to 3,531 in 2029, including 3,376 new aircraft
- 120 to 169 seats: from 8,030 to 13,726 in 2029, including 10,406 new aircraft
- 170 to 229 seats: from 1,471 to 3,654 in 2029, including 3,144 new aircraft
- 230 to 309 seats: from 1,510 to 4,807 in 2029, including 4,320 new aircraft
- 310 to 399 seats: from 1,187 to 2,686 in 2029, including 2,155 new aircraft
- More than 400 seats: from 499 to 578 in 2029, including 509 new aircraft
– Regarding new demand by region, JADC forecasts that the largest growth will be found in the Asia Pacific region with about 8,600 aircraft, followed by about 7,800 in the North America region, about 6,400 in other regions in total and about 6,250 in the Europe region.
– In the Asia Pacific region, new demand of more than 400 seats aircraft may reach about 250 because of higher passenger demand on routes to Europe or US on intra-routes in the region.
– In the 60 to 99 seats segment, including MRJ, the North America market will need new 1,310 aircraft, the largest demand in the world. The Asia Pacific region will need new 960 aircraft, however the MRJ business will probably face severe competition mainly because China, the biggest market in the region, is developing ARJ21, the same sized aircraft as MRJ.
Note:
JADC is a non-profit foundation established for the enhancement of Japanese aircraft industry with approval of the Japanese government.
JADC activities include:
– Research and studies for the development of civil aircraft;
– Tests and experiments relating to the above research and studies;
– In the event of an aircraft development program which single manufacturer cannot afford to undertake due to resource constraints, JADC acts as a consortium of Japanese aircraft manufacturers plays a role to coordinate and consolidate resources and also cooperate with foreign manufacturers as the need arises, e.g. Japanese participation in Boeing program (777 and 787).
– The current JADC chairman is Tadaharu Ohashi (KHI President/CEO). Executive members are represented by MHI, KHI, FHI, ShinMaywa, Nippi, IHI, Japan Airlines Corp., JAL, ANA and Japan Foreign Trade Council, Inc.
– The JADC report (Worldwide Market Forecast for Commercial Air Transport 2010-2029) is prepared by the Market group of JADC, and data sources of the forecast are ICAO, OAG MAX Database, ASCEND Database, and Global Insight.
– An English version of the full report is expected to become available in June 2010.
– The last report released in June 2009 (forecast for 2009 to 2028) is attached as background.
Worldwide Market Forecast for Commercial Air Transport 2009-2028
